At the onset of what can be termed Cold War 2.0, tensions between major global powers like the U.S., Russia, and China are resurfacing, marked by intricate geopolitical rivalries and strategic maneuvering. In this context, Henry Kissinger’s remark, “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be its friend is fatal,” resonates profoundly. This sentiment is particularly relevant to the Asia-Pacific region, where the Philippines finds itself at the heart of the strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China, highlighting the potential risks of being closely aligned with the U.S.
The quote fundamentally underscores the complexities and often precarious nature of alliances with the U.S. History is replete with instances where nations aligned with the U.S. faced significant challenges, betrayals, or adverse outcomes. One such case is the U.S. support for Ferdinand Marcos Sr.’s regime in the Philippines, driven by his anti-communist stance. Despite this backing, increasing domestic opposition and economic decline culminated in the People Power Revolution in 1986, leading to Marcos Sr.’s ouster. Although the U.S. facilitated his exile, the Philippines endured significant political and economic turmoil. This historical episode offers valuable lessons for Filipinos and the current regime in the Philippines, providing critical insights for navigating present and future geopolitical landscapes.
Battleground
Due to its strategic location, the Philippines has become the battleground of the U.S.-China strategic rivalry in the Asia Pacific. The U.S. has been reinforcing its regional alliances and presence to counter China’s expanding influence. This includes bolstering military cooperation and defense ties with the Philippines, conducting joint exercises and patrols in the disputed South China Sea, and deploying the Mid-Range Capability missile system, known as the Typhon System, capable of launching Standard Missile 6 and Tomahawk missiles. Additionally, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) has been expanded to allow the U.S. access to four more Philippine military bases, supplementing the five already established sites and bases.
Under Marcos Jr.’s regime, the Philippines is now at the frontline of any potential military conflict in the region. This positioning increases the risk of the Philippines being drawn into a larger military confrontation between great powers. Historical and contemporary precedents, more recently in the case of Ukraine in the ongoing Ukraine Crisis, show that nations caught in such power struggles often suffer significant collateral damage.
Conclusion:
Aligning with the U.S. can offer significant advantages, yet this partnership demands prudent deliberation to avert adverse geopolitical outcomes for the Philippines. Thus, it is imperative for the Philippines to strike a balance, transitioning its foreign policy from leaning toward the U.S., which can be a risky stance, to a more independent and neutral one. Kissinger’s quote serves as a cautionary reminder of the complex and often dangerous nature of aligning too closely with the U.S., particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. The Philippines must tread this situation carefully to avoid becoming a fatal casualty in the larger power struggle between and among great powers.
Source: The Lobbyist
https://www.thelobbyist.biz/perspectives/article-details/prime%20insight/high-stakes-of-alliances-consequences-of-being-a-us-ally-and-friend
