“Marcos Industrial Policy Driving Major Investment Commitments.”??? That’s the headline. The operative word, of course, is commitments, the most elastic (flexible) term in economic public relations.
Let’s be clear: investment commitments are NOT investments. They are pledges, memoranda, photo opportunities, and forward-looking press releases. They are NOT factories breaking ground, NOT semiconductor plants scaling up, NOT logistics corridors operating at industrial velocity. They are INTENTIONS! Economics is measured in EXECUTION!
Now look at the hard data.
Gross Capital Formation, the investment component of GDP, contracted by –5.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. Investment was shrinking late in the year. IT’S NOT SLOWING! Not slowing. IT’S CONTRACTING!
If industrial policy were truly “driving major investment,” capital formation would be accelerating. The national accounts would show expansion in plant, equipment, infrastructure, and industrial capacity. Instead, the numbers show a pullback.
You cannot have industrial momentum while the investment engine is in REVERSE!
Industrial policy, if serious, manifests in structural shifts:
- rising manufacturing value-added,
- export diversification beyond electronics assembly,
- reduced logistics and energy bottlenecks,
- increased capital goods imports for productive use,
- sustained productivity gains.
Where is the surge in tradables competitiveness?
Where is the visible climb in manufacturing’s GDP share?
Where is the sustained increase in high-value industrial output?
The Philippine economy remains heavily consumption-driven, buoyed by remittances and services. There is nothing inherently wrong with that model; it provides stability. BUT STABILITY IS NOT TRANSFORMATION.
And transformation is what industrial policy is supposed to deliver.
Growth slowed to 4.4% in 2025, with the fourth quarter dipping to 3.0%. Investment contracted. Confidence softened amid governance noise. These are NOT the macro signatures of an industrial takeoff. They are the signatures of an economy navigating FRICTION.
So what exactly is being “driven”?
Announcements? Yes.
Investment roadshows? Certainly.
Policy branding? Absolutely.
But industrial policy is NOT measured by podium frequency. It is measured by PRODUCTIVITY DEPTH.
When governments speak of “major commitments,” analysts ask:
How much has been converted?
What percentage has broken ground?
What is the disbursement rate?
What is the multiplier effect?
Where are the supply chain linkages?
Industrial policy WITHOUT sustained growth in capital formation is branding.
The gap between rhetoric and real investment trends is quite glaring.
Optimism is not delusion. But selective framing is NOT a strategy. If industrial policy is truly driving major investment, the data will eventually show it. Capital formation will rise. Manufacturing will deepen. Productivity will climb.
Until then, the applause should wait.
Markets do not react to headlines. They respond to numbers.
Duh! 
